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Nearly a Third of Federal Contract Dollars Are Going to U.S.-Controlled Firms, Star Analysis Finds

Oct 5
3 min read

A Toronto Star analysis published October 5, 2026 is putting a spotlight on a gap in Canada's "Buy Canadian" push: who actually controls the companies winning federal contracts. The Star found that about $7.8 billion in federal contracts went to U.S.-controlled corporations during Prime Minister Mark Carney's first 16 months in office, compared with $14.9 billion to Canadian-controlled companies.


The numbers

  • Period covered: From Carney taking office in March 2025 through the end of July 2026.

  • Total awarded: Roughly $25 billion in federal contracts, with $22.4 billion listed in federal contract data as going to Canadian companies.

  • Ownership-based view: The Star cross-referenced procurement records with the federal Inter-Corporate Ownership index, which tracks the country of control for more than 50,000 companies. On that basis, $7.8 billion went to U.S.-controlled firms and $14.9 billion to Canadian-controlled firms.

  • Trend: The share of contract dollars going to U.S.-controlled companies rose from about one-fifth in the 16 months before Carney took office to nearly one-third under his government.

  • Biggest winners: The Star reports the four highest-grossing federal contractors in this period are all American-controlled. According to The Peak's summary of the analysis, Microsoft, IBM and L3Harris were the only companies to land contracts of $1 billion or more.


Why the headline number is more complicated than it looks

The gap comes down to how "Canadian" is defined. Federal contract data records where a supplier is located, not who ultimately controls it. A Canadian subsidiary of a U.S. multinational can appear in procurement records as a Canadian company. The Star's analysis looks through that layer to the parent.


Two other points of context matter:

  • Timing: The Buy Canadian Policy took effect on December 16, 2025 and was expanded significantly in June 2026, so much of the period measured came before the new rules existed.

  • Policy design: As reported, the policy does not currently account for a supplier's country of control, which is the very measure the Star used.


What this means for Canadian suppliers

The analysis is likely to add pressure on federal buyers to look more closely at supplier ownership. Nothing has changed in the rules yet, but suppliers should pay attention:

  1. Canadian control is a differentiator. If your company is Canadian-owned and controlled, say so clearly in bids and capability statements.

  2. Technology is the pressure point. CCPA economist David Macdonald said that moving away from American dominance would take a concerted effort, particularly in technology. Canadian IT and software firms may find growing interest in domestic alternatives.

  3. Large contracts remain concentrated. The biggest awards are going to large multinationals, which makes subcontracting and teaming with primes an important route in for smaller Canadian firms.

  4. Expect more scrutiny. Ownership transparency in procurement is now part of the public conversation, and rule changes are possible.


How to position your business

  • State your ownership and Canadian content up front in proposals and profiles.

  • Track federal awards and tenders through CanadaBuys and Bids Advantage to see where large contracts and subcontracting opportunities are emerging.

  • Review the Buy Canadian Policy so you can speak to how your business meets its requirements.


Sources

 
 
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